How It Works

We monitor bookmakers and prediction markets. When we find an edge, we tell you.

What we track

14 Australian Bookmakers

Sportsbet, TAB, Ladbrokes, Neds, Pointsbet, bet365, BlueBet, Unibet, Palmerbet, TopSport, BoomBet, PlayUp, Betr, TABtouch

Real-time odds monitoring

Betting Exchanges

Betfair Exchange - bet against other punters instead of the house. Often better odds, essential for arbitrage.

Commission-adjusted calculations

Prediction Markets

Polymarket data for crowd sentiment analysis. When prediction markets disagree with bookmakers, there may be an edge.

Sharp signal detection

Arbitrage Alerts

When bookmakers disagree on odds, you can bet on all outcomes and guarantee a profit. This is arbitrage - mathematics, not gambling.

The Core Concept

We bet on every possible outcome. One bet wins, the others lose - but the winning bet pays out more than the total we staked.

It's not a bet. It's a calculation.

The Maths: Interactive Example

Adjust the stake to see how the numbers work

$100

NRL Match: Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm

Sportsbet
Sydney Roosters
2.10
Betfair
Melbourne Storm
2.05

The Calculation

Implied probability (Sydney Roosters): 1 / 2.1 = 47.6%
Implied probability (Melbourne Storm): 1 / 2.05 = 48.8%
Combined implied probability: 96.4%
Total under 100% - arbitrage exists! Profit margin: 3.73%

Your Bets

Bet 1: Sydney Roosters
@ Sportsbet
$49.40
Bet 2: Melbourne Storm
@ Betfair
$50.60
Total staked: $100.00

The Outcomes

If Sydney Roosters wins:
Payout: $103.73
Minus stakes: -$100.00
Profit: $3.73
If Melbourne Storm wins:
Payout: $103.73
Minus stakes: -$100.00
Profit: $3.73
Guaranteed profit regardless of result
$3.73
(3.73% return on $100)

Betting Exchanges

Exchanges (like Betfair) work differently from bookmakers. You bet against other punters, not the house.

BookmakerExchange
You bet againstThe bookmakerOther punters
Who sets oddsBookmakerThe market
Odds qualityMargin built inOften better
CommissionNone (in the odds)On winning bets only
Account limitsCommon for winnersRare

Understanding Exchange Commission

Exchanges charge commission only on winning bets. We automatically calculate this into our profit figures.

Formula: Effective Odds = 1 + (Quoted Odds - 1) x (1 - Commission)
Example: Betfair quotes 2.10, 7% commission = 2.023 effective

Sharp Signals

When Polymarket prices disagree with bookmaker odds, you should know about it.

Price Divergence Alerts

Prediction markets (like Polymarket) let people trade on real-world outcomes. Prices reflect crowd consensus about what's likely to happen. When these prices diverge significantly from what bookmakers are offering, it suggests one market may have mispriced the event.

For example: Polymarket might price a team's win probability at 35% while bookmakers have them at 45% implied. That 10-point divergence suggests one market knows something the other doesn't.

We alert you to these divergences so you can make informed decisions before the markets converge.

When you'll receive a Sharp Signal alert:

  • Polymarket and bookmaker implied probabilities diverge by 5%+
  • The event is one you've opted into in your preferences
  • There's sufficient volume on Polymarket for reliable pricing

Note: Australians cannot legally participate in offshore prediction markets. We display this data as an additional signal for interpreting market sentiment, not as a trading opportunity.

Poly Plunge Alerts

When serious money suddenly flows into a Polymarket position, you get notified.

What is a Poly Plunge?

A "Poly Plunge" occurs when there's a sudden, significant surge in dollar volume on a Polymarket position. This means someone with conviction (and capital) is making a big move.

Volume spikes often precede price moves. When you see $50k flow into a market in an hour that was trading $5k per day, something is happening. The crowd is voting with their wallets.

We monitor Polymarket volume in real-time and alert you to unusual activity before it's reflected in bookmaker odds.

When you'll receive a Poly Plunge alert:

  • Volume surges significantly above the market's normal trading activity
  • The spike happens in a compressed time window (minutes to hours)
  • The event is one you've opted into in your preferences
  • Bookmakers haven't yet reacted to the flow

Steam Moves

When multiple bookmakers move their odds in the same direction at the same time, it usually means sharp money is hitting the market.

Steam moves indicate that professional bettors - who often have better information or models - are betting heavily on one outcome. When you see steam, the market is telling you something.

We alert you to significant coordinated line movements so you can act before the odds settle at their new level.

Your Preferences

You control what you receive. Set your minimum profit threshold, choose your sports, select your bookmakers.

Lower Threshold (0.5%)

  • More opportunities
  • More notifications
  • Smaller profit per bet
  • Great for high volume

Higher Threshold (2%+)

  • Fewer opportunities
  • Fewer notifications
  • Larger profit per bet
  • Quality over quantity

What You Need

Speed

Arbitrage opportunities exist because of temporary pricing mismatches. They can disappear within minutes.

Multiple Accounts

You'll need accounts at several bookmakers. We recommend having 5-10 active accounts plus a Betfair account.

Capital

Arbitrage profits are small percentages (typically 0.5-3%). You need sufficient capital to make meaningful returns. We recommend starting with $500-1000.

Ready to see what the market sees?

Join nota.bet and start receiving alerts today.

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