How It Works

The mathematics of guaranteed profit

The Core Concept

We bet on every possible outcome. One bet wins, the others lose โ€“ but the winning bet pays out more than the total we staked.

It's not a bet. It's a calculation.

Why Do Bookmakers Have Different Prices?

Each bookmaker sets their own odds based on their own analysis, risk models, and customer base. They're essentially expressing an opinion about probability - and opinions differ.

Several factors create price differences:

  • Different models - Each bookmaker uses their own algorithms and analysts
  • Balancing the book - If too much money comes in on one side, they adjust prices to attract bets on the other
  • Market positioning - Some bookmakers offer better odds on certain sports to attract customers
  • Reaction speed - News (injuries, weather, team announcements) affects odds, but not all bookmakers adjust at the same time
  • Margins - Different bookmakers build in different profit margins

These differences are normal and legitimate. We're simply identifying when they're large enough to create a mathematical opportunity.

The Bookmaker Perspective

Let's be honest: bookmakers don't love arbitrage bettors. They're in business to make money, and they don't enjoy losing to anyone.

But here's what's often overlooked:

In every arbitrage bet, at least one bookmaker wins. You're placing bets on opposite outcomes at different bookmakers. When the event finishes, one of your bets wins and the others lose. The bookmakers on the losing side of your bet keep your stake.

Arbitrage bettors aren't extracting money from thin air - they're profiting from the difference between bookmakers. Individual bookmakers may win or lose on any given bet, just like with any other customer.

That said, bookmakers can and do limit accounts that consistently win. That's why we teach sustainable practices - spreading activity across bookmakers, varying bet sizes, and maintaining the kind of betting patterns that don't trigger restrictions.

How It Works: Step by Step

1

We scan multiple bookmakers

Our system monitors odds from 15+ Australian bookmakers in real-time, comparing prices across thousands of events.

2

We find pricing gaps

When the combined implied probabilities from different bookmakers add up to less than 100%, we've found an arbitrage opportunity.

3

We alert you instantly

You receive an SMS with the exact bets to place, at which bookmakers, and how much to stake on each outcome. Simple, clear instructions.

4

You place the bets

You place each bet at the specified bookmaker. Cover all outcomes, lock in your profit.

โœ“

Profit regardless of outcome

When the event finishes, one bet wins and the others lose. But your winning payout exceeds your total stakes. Guaranteed.

The Maths: A Real Example

Adjust the total stake to see how the numbers work

$100

๐Ÿ“ NRL Match: Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm

Sportsbet
Sydney Roosters
2.10
TAB
Melbourne Storm
2.05

๐Ÿ“Š The Calculation

Implied probability (Sydney Roosters): 1 รท 2.1 = 47.6%
Implied probability (Melbourne Storm): 1 รท 2.05 = 48.8%
Combined implied probability: 96.4%
โœ… Total is under 100% โ€” arbitrage exists! Profit margin: 3.73%

๐Ÿ’ฐ Your Bets

Bet 1: Sydney Roosters
@ Sportsbet
$49.40
Bet 2: Melbourne Storm
@ TAB
$50.60
Total staked: $100.00

๐Ÿ† The Outcomes

If Sydney Roosters wins:
Payout: $103.73
Minus stakes: -$100.00
Profit: $3.73
If Melbourne Storm wins:
Payout: $103.73
Minus stakes: -$100.00
Profit: $3.73
Guaranteed profit regardless of result
$3.73
(3.73% return on $100)

You Control the Trade-Off

Not all arbitrage opportunities are equal. You set your minimum profit threshold, and that creates a trade-off:

Lower Threshold (0.5%)

  • More opportunities
  • More notifications
  • Smaller profit per bet
  • Great for high volume

Higher Threshold (2%+)

  • Fewer opportunities
  • Fewer notifications
  • Larger profit per bet
  • Quality over quantity

You can adjust your preferences anytime in your settings.

๐Ÿ”„ Betting Exchanges Explained

Betting exchanges (like Betfair, Smarkets, Matchbook) work differently from traditional bookmakers and are essential tools for arbitrage betting.

Traditional Bookmaker

  • You bet against the bookmaker
  • Bookmaker sets the odds
  • Profit built into lower odds
  • No commission on winnings
  • May limit winning accounts

Betting Exchange

  • You bet against other punters
  • Market sets the odds
  • Often better odds available
  • Commission on winning bets only
  • Rarely limit accounts

๐Ÿ“Š Understanding Exchange Commission

Exchanges charge commission only on winning bets. This is crucial for arbitrage calculations:

Formula: Effective Odds = 1 + (Quoted Odds - 1) ร— (1 - Commission)
Example: Betfair quotes 2.10, you pay 7% commission
Effective = 1 + (2.10 - 1) ร— (1 - 0.07) = 1 + 1.10 ร— 0.93 = 2.023

โœ… Why We Show Guaranteed Profit

When an arbitrage opportunity includes an exchange bet, we calculate your guaranteed minimum profit โ€” assuming the exchange leg wins (worst case). If the bookmaker leg wins instead, you pay no commission and your actual profit is slightly higher. No nasty surprises.

Important Things to Know

โฑ๏ธ

Speed matters

Arbitrage opportunities exist because of temporary pricing mismatches. They can disappear within minutes as bookmakers adjust their odds.

๐Ÿ“ฑ

Multiple accounts needed

You'll need accounts at several bookmakers to take advantage of opportunities. We recommend having 5-10 active accounts.

๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ

Account sustainability

Bookmakers can limit accounts that win consistently. We teach sustainable practices and track your account health to help you maintain access long-term.

๐Ÿ’ต

Capital requirements

Arbitrage profits are small percentages (typically 0.5-3%). You need sufficient capital to make meaningful returns. We recommend starting with at least $500-1000.

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